Are the MLB's Broke Teams Spending More This Winter? A Deep Dive
The MLB and MLBPA's collective bargaining agreement is set to expire, and with it, the potential for another lockout looms. The last time this happened, it resulted in the sport's first work stoppage since the infamous 1994 strike. Both sides engaged in posturing, but ultimately, little changed. The pre-arb bonus pool was introduced, but no salary cap or abolition of the arbitration system was implemented.
Despite the threat of a lockout, it's important to remember that a whole season and World Series lie ahead. It's easy to view everything through the lens of a potential lockout, but it's not a healthy or wise approach. The temptation to do so is great, but we must focus on the present and the potential for a full season of baseball.
Some unusual spending patterns have emerged from historically frugal clubs. The Oakland Athletics extended Tyler Soderstrom and acquired players through a salary dump trade from the Mets. The Pittsburgh Pirates, known for their 'We Tried' approach, surprised by signing Ryan O'Hearn and Brandon Lowe. These moves, while not indicative of a new era, are a step up from their typical forgettable player signings.
Increased spending among lower-payroll teams benefits the league in two ways. Firstly, revenue-sharing payees have a duty to improve their on-field product with the funds they receive. Secondly, it weakens the players' argument that these teams don't care about competitiveness. In the past, free agency slowed, reminiscent of the collusion era, but before the last lockout, free agents were getting huge paydays.
In many workplaces, management offers bonuses or raises when a CBA is approaching or workers discuss unionizing. This tactic can sometimes blunt worker engagement. The question arises: Are poorer MLB teams making significant moves, or are we seeing a handful of big signings and rumors?
Let's examine 10 teams that haven't made the playoffs in three seasons and/or recorded at least one 100-loss season in the past three seasons. These teams are both bad and seemingly not trying.
The Athletics, Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, and White Sox are the five non-contenders with major league payrolls below half of the $241 million luxury tax limit. Using RosterResource, we can track their major additions over the past two offseasons, including contract extensions and players acquired through trade or free agency earning over $1 million annually.
The Athletics have had a decent offseason so far, extending some corner bats and trading for veterans. While they resemble the Steinbrenner Yankees compared to other teams, their spending spike is not as significant.
The Marlins have increased their free agent spending by almost 400% year-on-year, but one Pete Fairbanks doesn't make a competitive team.
The Nationals, despite acquiring several free agents, mostly signed one-year filler contracts. Nathaniel Lowe is the only notable addition.
The Pirates' estimated 2026 payroll is only $96 million, a $9 million increase from 2024-25. They've let last season's one-year signings walk and traded away Ke'Bryan Hayes' deal. However, their signings of Lowe and O'Hearn are exciting, unlike their previous token contracts.
The White Sox have signed Munetaka Murakami and Anthony Kay, with doubts about Murakami's performance. Kay was one of NPB's best pitchers last season, and his signing is a positive step.
While only three of these five teams have made notable efforts to improve, there's still time and many free agents available. The trend suggests that the Little Sisters of the Poor remain unchanged, but with the potential for a full season ahead, there's hope for a more competitive MLB.
